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IN BRIEF
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The beautiful Venice, often regarded as an architectural masterpiece suspended between sky and water, could face dark days if the forecasts of Italian researchers are to be believed. A recent study sheds light on alarming projections regarding water levels that, by the end of the century, could engulf the city of the Doges under a threatening deluge, questioning the future of this iconic city. Between rising waters and ground subsidence, the fragility of Venice has never been so palpable, foreseeing an uncertain future for its majestic palaces and enchanting alleys.
Venice, this floating marvel with a thousand facets, finds itself at a crossroads between dream and nightmare. While millions of visitors flock each year to admire its canals and palaces, a recent study by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) casts a troubling light on the future of the lake city. Researchers announce that due to climate change and subsidence, Venice could be submerged by the end of the century, taking with it part of its world heritage. The MOSE protection system, designed to safeguard the city, may not be enough to preserve it from this relentless rise of water.
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A City Under Pressure #
The residents of Venice live with water as a partner, but also as a threat. In November 2019, a tragic event marked collective memory: the water rose to 187 cm above the reference level, drowning nearly 85% of the city. St. Mark’s Square, an emblematic symbol of the city, was flooded, with over a meter of water at its feet.
Since 2020, the MOSE system (Experimental Electromechanical Module) has been activated. Its mobile barriers, designed to rise against the rising waters, are meant to protect Venice from high tides by creating a separation between the Adriatic Sea and the lagoon. But in the face of sea level rise and subsidence of certain neighborhoods, questions about its efficacy are becoming more pressing. Researchers report ground subsidence rates ranging from 0.9 mm to 2.9 mm per year, which could translate, over a century, into several additional centimeters of depth under the waters.
What Awaits Us in 2100? #
When one takes a look in the rearview mirror of climate projections, researchers offer several scenarios that leave us perplexed. In the most optimistic outlook (SSP1-2.6), the sea level in Venice could rise by about 60 cm by 2100. Conversely, the most pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5) predicts a rise of 80 to 90 cm.
In concrete terms, imagine this. The Basilica of St. Mark, already troubled by saltwater infiltration, would see its threshold flooded about 60 times a year. By 2100, even the MOSE may not prevent this noble architecture from being underwater for more than 250 days per year. And what about the Grand Canal? The opulent palaces of yesterday could become submerged memories, invisible to future visitors.
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When MOSE Will No Longer Be Enough #
Originally designed to withstand a rise of between 60 cm and 3 meters difference between sea and lagoon levels, the MOSE system is now under scrutiny. With alarming projections from scientists, it would not be surprising if this protection arsenal goes from hope to ineffectiveness. The memory of extreme flooding like that of 1966, when the water reached 194 cm, could resurface and confront Venice with a different kind of disaster.
Moreover, the consequences of this crisis would also affect other islands in the lagoon. For example, the island of Burano, famous for its colorful houses, could see nearly 50% of its surface regularly submerged, while Sant’Erasmo, the true garden of Venice, could lose 52% of its arable land. The Little Venice of Chioggia would be the most affected, with 81% of its area at risk. A total transformation of the landscape of this UNESCO World Heritage site.
An Uncertain Future: Adapt or Disappear #
Venice has always shown impressive resilience, surviving crises that nearly submerged it. Today, it is attempting to adapt to the unprecedented scale of the climate challenges weighing on its existence. Various solutions are already emerging: raising the quays and public areas is underway in certain neighborhoods, while architects are exploring amphibious housing inspired by Dutch techniques.
One question remains crucial: how far are we willing to invest to preserve this unique heritage? After an initial cost of 6 billion euros for the MOSE, what even more ambitious solutions do we need? The idea of a partially submerged Venice remains a reality to consider, just as modifications to the habitable spaces in the historical palaces.
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The Time for Choices #
It is evident that Venice faces a paradox. This symbol of architectural beauty and history cannot be moved. The city’s relationship with water is inseparable; what makes each visit so precious is the awareness of its fragility. The prophecy of Italian researchers is not only an alarming observation but also a call to action. The choices of those concerned with the common good today will ensure that future generations can admire the wonders of the Serenissima or discover the remnants of a civilization that failed to adapt in time.
In the meantime, the magic of Venice attracts, fascinates, and inspires millions of tourists to explore its labyrinthine alleys without necessarily realizing that they walk on a ground whose future is as uncertain as it is captivating. The beauty of this lake city remains, but the fight against rising waters is certainly a battle that must be fought with determination and vision.
