Ryanair tightens the belt: nearly one million seats fewer to and from Spain for the winter 2025-2026, especially from regional airports. Panic aboard for French travelers fearing a spike in prices? Not necessarily: airlines prefer adjusting frequencies rather than delivering a price shock. However, expect fewer direct flights and more connections via major hubs, more minutes lost than euros gained.
Ryanair plans to cut nearly one million seats on its routes to and from Spain for the winter 2025-2026. Is this enough to give chills to deal-hunters? Not so fast: while supply contracts, market signals do not necessarily indicate a surge in prices. However, expect fewer direct flights to regional airports, more connections via Madrid or Barcelona, and a game of musical chairs among airlines. Here’s what’s changing, why it’s happening, and how to continue traveling smart without blowing your budget.
The low-cost Irish airline is taking a significant hit: about 1,000,000 seats less to Spain for the upcoming winter season. On the menu, a decrease of about 41% in capacity on mainland Spain (nearly 600,000 seats) and around 10% in the Canaries (about 400,000 seats). For French travelers, this means a thinner network to certain cities, especially the secondary ones, but not necessarily skyrocketing tickets.
Ryanair highlights the increase in airport fees set by Aena (a progression of about 6.62%) to justify this cut. Behind the scenes, the calculation is just as straightforward: it’s better to refocus the offer where load factors and costs make sense rather than to operate at a loss. As a result, some capacity will shift to markets deemed more “agile” such as Italy, Morocco, Croatia, Sweden, or Hungary.
Where is the axe falling?
Spanish regional platforms are the most exposed. Marked reductions are expected, with bases closing and routes disappearing. Iconic examples: closure of the base in Santiago, end of operations in Jerez and Valladolid, withdrawal of flights to Tenerife North and Vigo. Airports like Zaragoza or Santiago de Compostela would see a seriously curtailed capacity. If you were used to flying directly to a small city, you may now need to transit through a hub.
This strategy is not unprecedented. In France, following the increase of the TSBA (tax on plane tickets) at the beginning of 2025, the airline had already withdrawn about 750,000 seats and moved on from destinations like Brive, Bergerac, or Strasbourg. A familiar pattern: public pressure and private economic arbitration.
Why is Ryanair tightening the screws?
Officially, it’s the rising airport charges. Unofficially, it’s the economic weather: in a time of tight leisure budgets, better to reduce frequencies than to slash prices. It’s also a way to send a message to the authorities: grant more competitive conditions, and capacity will be reallocated. A seasoned negotiation technique, especially when demand proves to be capricious.
Practical translation for passengers: the offer shifts where costs are softer, load factors sturdier, and local incentives more generous. French travelers will need to adapt, but the hit to the wallet is not predetermined.
Ticket prices: surge or mirage?
Intuitively, less supply should drive prices up. Yet, in highly competitive intra-European markets, airlines know that rapid increases can cool a clientele that has become adept at negotiation. Recent trend indicators on airplane tickets actually point to fairly stable rates in recent months, despite occasional fluctuations depending on routes and periods.
When one player withdraws for economic reasons, others do not automatically reflect a hike. On the contrary, they may maintain their rates – or even grant a slight decrease – to capture orphaned customers. In this equation, the decrease in capacity acts like an ice cube in a too-sweet soda: it tempers the fizz instead of provoking it.
When supply decreases, prices do not always rise
On destinations where competition remains fierce, the “fewer seats = more expensive” effect is not mechanical. Airlines often prefer to maintain a reasonable fare curve and first adjust the number of flights. In other words, expect fewer schedule choices, not necessarily an explosion in starting prices.
Previous instances confirm this: the stabilization of rates, sometimes accompanied by targeted promotions, helps smooth demand without scaring budgets. To keep track of opportunities, keep an eye on flash sales from agencies and OTAs, often aligned with the commercial operations of airlines.
What the barometers say
Recent analyses suggest that, despite piling costs (fuel, fees, maintenance), the market has not broken through the price ceiling. The low-cost trends observed since 2023 have established a new balance: fewer seats on certain routes, but constant pressure to remain attractive. And depending on the times, some winter destinations continue to show notable drops, especially where competition remains spicy.
In short, the pricing thermometer is lukewarm: neither freeze nor heatwave. Savvy travelers can still benefit from a market that adjusts more by supply than by major hikes in prices.
Concrete consequences for French travelers
The first visible impact is not the number on the bank card, but the travel time and convenience of the journey. Fewer direct flights to secondary airports means more connections, particularly via Madrid or Barcelona. The price may remain gentle, but the travel day lengthens – especially on short weekends.
Another implication: flexibility becomes king again. Departures during the week, early morning or late evening often offer the best deals. Sometimes, choosing an alternative airport (departure or arrival) can regain access to gentle rates.
Goodbye to certain direct flights, hello connections
If your routine was to land close to your favorite spot in Galicia or Andalusia, you may now have to pass through a hub, or even mix airlines and separate tickets. Connections open up other options… as long as you allow a safety margin between flights, especially on unlinked tickets.
Multi-airline planning apps and price alerts become your best allies. Also remember that some baggage checked on separate tickets requires retrieval/re-drop, which lengthens the journey even more.
Flexibility and tips to pay less
– Compare broadly and frequently: follow price trends and set alerts on multiple platforms. Private sales and agency promotions can offset the dwindling seat availability.
– Aim for the right windows: departures in midweek, very early returns, quiet periods between school holidays.
– Think “multi-airports”: a departure from the province to a hub, then a low-cost flight to your Spanish city can remain competitive, even with an optimized carry-on.
– Use price protection: some cards and players offer price matching guarantees. When available, it’s a good safety net against pricing yo-yos.
– Keep a seasonal Plan B: if your targeted route saturates, alternative destinations in Southern Europe or North Africa can offer an appealing weather-price mix while capacity shifts.
And after winter 2025-2026?
Airline capacities are a bit like Tetris pieces: they move, stack elsewhere, and then return when the ground becomes favorable again. If more attractive agreements emerge or if demand strengthens, nothing prevents supply from returning to certain Spanish cities. Ryanair has already shown that it knows how to hit pause… then play when the equation becomes advantageous.
In the meantime, the winning duo remains the same: flexibility and comparison. Faced with a market that prefers to reduce frequencies rather than increase prices, it’s the diversity of routes – more than the final bill – that changes. And for those who juggle with schedules, airports, and alerts, Spain remains just a click away without breaking the bank.
