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IN BRIEF |
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Global tourism shows historic figures, even as the impacts of climate change, rising prices, and contestation of overtourism quickly reshape the travel landscape. Between fragile destinations, rising costs, and new aspirations, researchers discuss the gradual entry into an era of “non-tourism” where the act of traveling might cease to be a pillar of our lifestyles. This article describes the accumulating signals, the economic tensions of the current model, and the avenues toward a shift towards a culture of hospitality and local travel.
The paradox is striking: global tourism has surpassed its pre-pandemic levels. In the first half of 2025, nearly 700 million people traveled internationally, about 5% more than in 2024, and certain segments like cruises are experiencing a true golden age according to forecasts from the United Nations. The curve seems to be upward.
But behind this growth, another curve is hardening: that of climate risks and associated costs. Fires, floods, landslides, coastal retreat, melting snow in resorts, pressure on infrastructure… All these factors render places less accessible, less attractive, or more expensive to maintain. Academic voices, such as those of researchers specializing in tourism and climate, describe a trajectory where travel could lose its centrality, outlining a scenario of “non-tourism”.
This idea does not signal the end of vacations but the end of a system based on the intensive consumption of destinations through a fly industry and infrastructures reliant on fossil fuels. In Europe, the era of mass tourism born after the Second World War is approaching, according to these analyses, a turning point imposed by resource scarcity, risk volatility, and the social sensitivity of territories.
Weak signals becoming strong
Everywhere, local realities are accumulating and generalizing. Winter sports resorts are seeing their season shortened and their snow production costs rise, undermining their model. Coastal regions are facing erosion and rising sea levels, with beaches to be rebuilt or protected at growing costs. Islands and areas exposed to wildfires or floods are experiencing temporary closures and visitor mistrust.
These phenomena are no longer isolated incidents. They are establishing themselves over time and contaminating risk perception, operator profitability, travel planning, and tourist experience. As extreme events multiply, the insurability of stays, disaster management, and resilience costs are becoming decisive variables in the tourism equation.
The hidden cost of travel
Visible inflation (transport, accommodation) adds to less visible inflation. The cost of insurance rises with exposure to risk. The price of foodstuffs increases due to climate and logistical shocks. Low-carbon solutions (renovations, sustainable fuels, alternative energies) require investments that are passed on to rates. Even the maintenance of beaches or the protection of coastal infrastructure inflates local budgets, sometimes through tourism taxes.
In the end, the cost of travel is increasing, long trips are becoming less affordable, and a growing portion of demand is turning to closer destinations or longer but less frequent stays. The real price of travel now incorporates precautionary and repair costs.
An economic model on its last legs
Confusing cyclical context with structural trend would be misleading. The current boom does not erase the underlying trajectory: a model built on mass mobility, little sensitive to climate and material limits, is showing its fragilities. Professionals themselves anticipate stronger constraints on airlines, higher carbon taxes, and increased variability in demand according to seasons and risks.
Socially, the legitimacy of tourism is being debated. Protests by residents, like those seen in Majorca in summer 2025, illustrate an outcry against the effects of overtourism on housing, services, and the environment. Territories are testing quotas, capacity management policies, and co-governance models involving residents, public and private actors.
Cruises and contradictions
The fact that some cruises are thriving does not invalidate the thesis of a shift. This segment condenses the dilemmas of the moment: high profitability, demand appetite, but growing pressures on environmental footprint, port welcome, emissions, and flow management. As regulations tighten and cities impose limits, the balance between volume and acceptability becomes more delicate.
Toward an era of hosts and otium
Rather than a disappearance of vacations, a redefinition of their meaning is taking shape. The host refers to mutual hospitality: building stays where local benefits, respect for communities, and the quality of relationships between hosts and visitors take priority over volume. Otium suggests a rehabilitated leisure, where one enjoys free time without overconsuming space or multiplying travels.
From this perspective, value is no longer the quantity of places checked off on a map, but the density of the experience, the care taken in meetings, and the sobriety of means mobilized. Destinations are focusing more on slowness, quality, and resilience than on the infinite extension of attendance.
Proximity and new practices
The movement toward local travel is gaining ground: longer but less frequent stays, exploration of nearby regions, choosing soft modes (train, bike, walking), off-season visits, discovering less saturated areas. This gradual shift answers both to climate pressure, costs, and the aspiration for a more meaningful experience.
What can destinations and stakeholders do?
Territories are working on the seasonal and geographical diversification of supply, on flow management (reservations, capacity, pricing), and on the protection of ecosystems. Operators are investing in decarbonization (energy efficiency, alternative fuels, renovation), and strengthening their risk and insurance management. Footprint measurement and carrying capacity are becoming management tools alongside marketing.
At the traveler level, choices are changing: accepting shorter trips but more intense, prioritizing hospitality relationships over attraction consumption, anticipating higher prices and seeking experiences aligned with planetary limits. “Non-tourism” is not the absence of travel, but the transition to a more sober, more local, and more responsible practice of displacement and shared time.
